Short-term Shanghai nickel may continue to rise, then pared gains - Shandong Jiugang Tisco Steel Co., Ltd.

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Short-term Shanghai nickel may continue to rise, then pared gains

Short-term Shanghai nickel may continue to rise, then pared gains

Russia attacked Ukraine in an all-round way. Yesterday, the price of gold and crude oil rose sharply. US crude oil once exceeded 100 US dollars, and nickel prices rose sharply. London nickel and Shanghai nickel set record highs in ten years, and then retreated sharply. In the outer disk, Lun nickel closed down 215 to 24,275 US dollars, with a range of 23,900-25,705 US dollars, and Shanghai nickel fell to 176,720, with a range of 175,070-184,650. Jinchuan Group raised the ex-factory price by 2,500. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was about 1,600, the premium of Russian nickel was 1,300, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,200. In the spot market, stockholders continued to cut prices for shipments, but the market’s fear of heights did not disappear, and the overall trading was light. .

The impact of Russia’s attack on Ukraine on the global market economy is difficult to estimate, and no specific sanctions have been implemented yet. The geopolitical situation may affect the price fluctuations of gold, crude oil, stock market, nickel, aluminum and other metals, as well as the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, the European Union, the United Kingdom and other regions. The seriousness of Russia-US relations may even affect the influence of US executives on Wall Street’s capital investment intentions.

The market generally believes that NATO sanctions against Russia will affect the supply of nickel in Russia. In fact, it is difficult to predict the impact on the production of nickel mines in Russia, prompting a substantial reduction in Russian nickel exports to Europe, while the increase in exports to China is real. Inventories continue to decrease, the downstream market is seriously afraid of high nickel prices, the buying desire is sluggish, the trend of stainless steel is weak, the operation of steel mills and nickel sulfate manufacturers is facing losses, and the fundamentals are actually negative for nickel prices.

From the perspective of the disk, after the price of nickel has risen sharply, the net increase has been greatly expelled, indicating that the high-level air pressure is very large, and the technical signal is bearish.

Core point of view: Due to the influence of geopolitics, the strength of oil prices has boosted the bullish confidence in commodities, the fundamentals are negative, and the technical signals are weak, but from the past trend, nickel prices will not decline in response, and it is expected that the short-term nickel prices will still surge. During the process, the increase was later pared back. It is recommended that businesses wait and see more. After Shanghai nickel rises to a certain price, a small amount of short orders can be considered.



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